Mark your IPO calendar. It’s here.
SpaceX is preparing for one of the most ambitious IPOs Wall Street has ever seen. Elon Musk’s company aims to raise approximately $75 billion, with public offering price of $135 per share for its expected Nasdaq debut on June 12, 2026.
Preliminary indications of investor demand are very positive. As of June 5, 2026, the order book was reportedly around two times oversubscribed, with demand of roughly $150 billion versus the $75 billion the company aims to raise.
Up to 30% of the IPO, or around $22.5 billion, is expected to be allocated to retail investors, with access available through selected brokers and varying requirements depending on the platform used.
Crypto exchange Bybit offers tokenized access to the SpaceX IPO through xStocks, with subscriptions being opened from June 7 to June 11 and tokenized trading expected to begin on June 12.
The most important development of recent days, however, is the cloud and AI contract with Google, disclosed in a regulatory filing and reported by Reuters on June 5, 2026. Under the agreement, Google would pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 to June 2029 for computing capacity, including roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs. This strengthens the narrative around AI’s central role in SpaceX’s future. Together with previous agreements with Anthropic, the disclosed compute contracts would potentially exceed $70 billion, assuming they are not terminated early.
In 2025, SpaceX had total revenues of $18.67 billion and reported a net loss of $4.94 billion.
Starlink remains by far the company’s most tangible business, with significant and rapidly growing profits. Despite this, the roadshow has so far placed greater emphasis on the AI story, particularly the possibility of building data centers in space, although that project remains purely speculative at this stage.
The question, therefore, is simple: is the market buying Starlink, or is it buying a call option on orbital AI?
A valuation of $1.75 trillion would make SpaceX one of the five largest companies in the world immediately after listing. The market is essentially paying for gigantic AI optionality and the for SpaceX potential to become a primary source of computing power for artificial intelligence. Nevertheless, there is currently little evidence supporting that vision beyond the recently announced agreements with Google and Anthropic.
According to Goldman Sachs, SpaceX’s AI revenue could increase from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030. If that proves accurate, the current valuation would appear far less extreme. Today, however, the market is pricing in an exceptionally ambitious scenario, one that will be difficult to implement and carries substantial operational risk.
Investors should therefore consider several key factors: whether sufficient GPU supply exists to support expanding AI operations; whether adequate energy esources and data center infrastructure will be available to sustain higher utilization; how many hyperscalers are likely to sign large-scale contracts; whether existing agreements will remain in force as market conditions evolve; and whether SpaceX can deliver contracted computing capacity on time and at scale. While all of these outcomes are possible, none has yet been demonstrated at the scale required to justify valuation multiples consistent with the company's current market value.
The announced contract with Google provides some validation to the AI thesis: at least one hyperscaler has committed to spending tens of billions of dollars on compute capacity.
However, agreements in the AI infrastructure sector often include exit clauses, delivery conditions, and significant operational dependencies.
Another key aspect of SpaceX's business model is its relationship with government entities. SpaceX serves as critical infrastructure for NASA, defense agencies, and satellite communication providers. The company’s $2.29 billion contract, awarded on May 26, 2026, for services related to the U.S. Space Force demonstrates that the U.S. government views SpaceX as a strategic asset. It is also clear that SpaceX intends to deepen its relationships with public agencies.
This supports long-term viability of SpaceX's business model. However, it also creates additional exposure to political risk, export-control risk, compliance requirements, and heightened scrutiny of pricing and governance.
From an investment perspective, the SpaceX IPO is therefore a three-layer bet.
The first layer is Starlink, which represents the most tangible and income-generating component of SpaceX's business.
The second is the government and defense segment: strategic and potentially durable, but also highly political and subject to shifts in policy and administration.
The third is AI: potentially transformative, but still largely unproven in terms of scale, margins, and contractual durability.
