When Robert Friedland speaks, geologists scrub mines and shareholders grab calculators — here’s what it means to $BAY the $Copper Storm
Who is Robert Friedland? The copper pope, the oracle, the shaman, the whisperer — the man who practically invented half the modern copper narrative. When he speaks, the copper land listens.
This is the kind of tweet that sends geologists on a trip to the mountain to touch the ore and the rock. The kind of tweet that gets capitalists to pull out the calculator: hmm, what does this mean to my NPV, IRR, cash flow, net profit, profit per share?
Let’s revisit Storm’s economics and calculate, shall we?
Storm Implied NPV: US$149M at US$4.50 Copper
(The original PEA Base Case) Converted to CAD: 149M÷0.70=C$213M
Storm Implied NPV: US$306M at US$5.50 Copper
(MSK October Update — 100% risked Phase 1, 35% risked Phase 2, future expansion unpriced) Converted to CAD: 306M÷0.70=C$437M
Storm Implied NPV: US$350M–$400M at US$6.60 Copper
(Robert Friedland Structural Shortage Case — Includes ~20% uplift from copper price and ~5% uplift from reduced cost per pound due to negative TC/RC — smelters paying premiums for clean feed.)
Converted to CAD: 350M÷0.70=C$500M | 400M÷0.70=C$571M
Now translate into NPV for BAY’s 20% free carry until BFS
PEA Base Case : BAY Storm NPV: US$30M or C$43M
149M×0.20=29.8M USD | 29.8M÷0.70=C$43M
MSK October Case: BAY Storm NPV: US$61M or C$87M
306M×0.20=61M USD | 61M÷0.70=C$87M
Robert Friedland Structural Shortage Case: BAY Storm NPV: US$70M–$80M or C$100M–C$114M
350M×0.20=70M USD | 400M×0.20=80M USD
Converted to CAD:
70M÷0.70=C$100M | 80M÷0.70=C$114M
Then add:
C$5M free‑carry value from the A$25M spending so far
Canadian tax incentives
Source: https://x.com/robert_ivanhoe/status/2109258940856881384?s=20
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and is based solely on publicly available disclosures, including MD&A filings, financial statements, ASX releases, and Government of Nunavut grant announcements. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
Storm PEA (March 03, 2025) https://aw12.irmau.com/pdf/af9f1a13-011a-46b5-881e-8afe21c1e2d9/Platform/ListPage/Storm-Copper-Project-Preliminary-Economic-Study.pdf
MKS Research — October Update https://ranos.io/files/report/?f=2b4ac772-7bf9-4895-87c3-6497f677175d&srid=5c9d54c8-5c68-4198-8421-78565e9df62a&m_id=b03291ab-f0e8-4c57-88d2-8b5299c02303
MKS Research — June Update https://aw12.irmau.com/pdf/042c01d1-70ec-499f-96a9-28d13106120d/Platform/ListPage/West-Desert-Drilling-Great-Start-More-to-Come.pdf
AW1 Storm‑related capital raises
https://aw12.irmau.com/pdf/dc8c210c-b25f-4820-bbd6-c33e53759287/Platform/ListPage/Strategic-Placement-to-Raise-A10-Million.pdf
https://aw12.irmau.com/pdf/6b0b88d1-62af-4b6d-baef-7b62dc176fea/Platform/ListPage/Successful-Capital-Raising-for-Storm.pdf
https://aw12.irmau.com/pdf/cf30d611-16b6-4de3-ab2f-c4b9a74e80d8/Platform/ListPage/A7M-Raised-to-Advance-Storm.pdf https://aw12.irmau.com/pdf/62f50c02-b40a-4bd9-9eb5-ee80dcf66a80/Platform/ListPage/10M-in-Funding-to-Advance-Storm-Copper.pdf
